Does anybody else think Gartner’s hype cycle is speeding up?
It seems to me that SOA spent about two or three years just reaching its hype pinnacle and is only now settling into the “plateau of productivity.”
Big Data is already plunging into the Trough of Disillusionment, according to the latest Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies 2014. I really feel like it was only two years ago that we really started to take it seriously.
Oh wait: That’s because it was only 2012 (thank you, Forbes, for keeping that!) when Big Data — wedged between gamification (did anybody take that seriously?) and crowdsourcing — first stepped into the Peak of Inflated Expectations.
Actually, if you think about it, it’s not so surprising that Big Data should peak so quickly. Many companies already had a Big Data problem, so Hadoop and in-memory computing came into the world with a ready-made need.
It also came into the hype cycle with some challenges, including the complexities of MapReduce and a talent shortage. While vendors, the open source community and IT shops are chipping away at the challenges, organizations are still struggling with Big Data implementations, often opting for “oversimplified” implementations. Perhaps that’s the reason for the precipitous plunge.
Predictably enough, the Internet of Things is at its “Peak of Inflated Expectations.” If you look at the hype cycle as a marketing gauge, instead of a predictive tool, then that makes perfect sense. You can’t swing a tire on the web without hitting an IoT story these days. No surprises there.
Actually, if you want something really useful out of the hype cycle curve, look at the little icons, which tell you the time frame on this stuff.https://o1.qnsr.com/log/p.gif?;n=203;c=204663295;s=11915;x=7936;f=201904081034270;u=j;z=TIMESTAMP;a=20410779;e=i
For instance, the hype cycle predicts that predictive analytics and data science are approaching the “Peak of Inflated Expectations.” However, you’ll notice that data science is represented with a light blue circle — meaning the Plateau of Productivity, which ends the hype cycle, will be reached in two to five years.
Meanwhile, predictive analytics will take five to 10 years to reach the end of the hype cycle. This makes intuitive sense, since data science will need to mature before you can really find reliable value from predictive analytics.
Right below these two, you’ll find “Neurobusiness.” To be honest, I don’t even know what the heck that is. I’ll grant you I could go look it up, but it’s represented by a yellow icon, which means it’ll be more than 10 years before this plateaus, giving me a safe year or two to read up on it.
Honestly, the most disappointing thing to me is that we’re still years and a huge hump away from the connected home. I am really tired of remembering I need chili powder when the pot is already boiling.
If you’d like to meditate on Gartner’s Hype Cycle, you’ll find it in this press release or in one of the many, many write-ups about it, most of which are equally dry. To pick a couple of names from the hat, Network World and Silicon Angle both have articles.
Loraine Lawson is a veteran technology reporter and blogger. She currently writes the Integration blog for IT Business Edge, which covers all aspects of integration technology, including data governance and best practices. She has also covered IT/Business Alignment and IT Security for IT Business Edge. Before becoming a freelance writer, Lawson worked at TechRepublic as a site editor and writer, covering mobile, IT management, IT security and other technology trends. Previously, she was a webmaster at the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet and a newspaper journalist. Follow Lawson at Google+ and on Twitter.