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Quantifying Risk

16 Replies Last post: Nov 5, 2009 11:52 PM by MaribelLeon   1 2 Previous Next
Ralph DeFrangesco   54 posts since
Oct 3, 2008
Reply

Dec 16, 2009 1:34 PM

Quantifying Risk

"Why is it important to be able to quantify risk?"

JeffGoldman   10 posts since
Nov 3, 2009
1. Nov 3, 2009 2:36 PM in response to: Ralph DeFrangesco
Re: Quantifying Risk

To successfully perform a risk assessment one needs to quantify the known risks. It is all about being prepared. People invest in gold and silver as a way to protect themselves from a falling stock market and inflation, and businesses need to invest in preparing for what could become their show stopper.

 

There are numerous risks that occur in a business or project that could cause a delay in meeting a deadline or potentially derail their operations all together. By quantifying the risk you can, to the best of your ability, prepare for these circumstances. By being prepared you avoid the sucker-punch effect. This doesn't mean you don't still get hit, or even fall down, it just means that you have taken into account the 'what could be' and the result is a 'not as bad as it could have been' situation.

 

Because there are so many risks to take into account, such as a key individual quitting their job who is part of a project, to experiencing a natural disaster or terrorist attack, quantifying the risk allows the assessor to prioritize which risks require some sort of action to occur to help minimize the impact and which risks can be excluded from concern.

WarrickStJean   28 posts since
May 11, 2009
2. Nov 3, 2009 8:29 PM in response to: Ralph DeFrangesco
Re: Quantifying Risk

Almost every business venture is the manifestation of an entrepreneurial venture. Entrpreneurialism is by definition synonymous with risk and risk is associated with failure.

 

The decision to undertake an entrepreneurial venture must be preceded by a thorough understanding of the challenges and risks that will face the business in it's infancy. The ability to succeed over time depends on the ability to measure and manage risk. Successful businesses adhere to the principle of operational efficiency and in order to operate efficiently a business must make timely and well informed decisions about how to utilize limited resources.

 

In order to fulfill the company's fiduciary responsibility of prudent decision making an earnest attempt must be made to project/calculate the potential perils of various decisions. These perils or risks and their associated opportunity costs must be given value, usually monetary value. The process of applying this value is the process of quantifying risk and without it the business cannot make truly informed decisions in order to minimize failure.

JeffGoldman   10 posts since
Nov 3, 2009
3. Nov 4, 2009 11:05 AM in response to: WarrickStJean
Re: Quantifying Risk

Great response. Realizing limited resources are the key. All companies are working with reduced resources, especially staff, and by quantifying risk it doesn't just allow the business to determine the monetary value of a project, though this is truly what it all comes down to, but also the most important functions and processes that a business is dependant upon to recover first in a recovery situation. This weighting also is used as a gauge for proper allocation of capital and determining an exceptable return on investment.

Dawit   8 posts since
Nov 5, 2009
4. Nov 5, 2009 2:47 AM in response to: Ralph DeFrangesco
Re: Quantifying Risk

We need to quantify the risk in order to understand the level of risk that we are willing to accept or to reject take .Quantifying risk helps decision maker to assess what kind of option they have in order to take Road A and Road B on their decision making process . Let’s say if we don’t quantify risk we are facing only to option risky or not risky as a result of this every project or business scenariosis going to have to only two answers “to be or not to be” which is actually create a big ambiguity when we have two or more projects to be consider since we have only two answers always (I.e. without quantifying) risky or not risky. As a result of this Quantifying risk plays a grater roll in order to make best business executive decisions.

Risk quantifying defines the level of risk with directly proportion to the kind of events .to demonstrate this in mathematical terms.

Level of risk   Directly proprtinal event type

That means in any change of the event type the level of the risk is also changes proportionally.

We can quantifying risk in simple level form such as low high medium for instance walking bare foot on hot coal, muddy area or waking on chemical hazards floor can be quantified as medium low and high risk respectively. As a result of this if one has to choose in between he or she can take best assessment from this simple scenario .Other quantifying method also help us to gain a better indulgent for the risk we are willing to take or reject

Finally in order to decide on the possibility of risk quantification is must and necessary

Dawit   8 posts since
Nov 5, 2009
5. Nov 5, 2009 12:00 PM in response to: JeffGoldman
Re: Quantifying Risk

I agree with jeff quantifying risk will help more for allocation of project budget with minmum tolerance wasting resource and to be prepared for the risk that about yet to come ,lets face it we can not 100 % mitigate risk but if we quntify the risk  assessment we have at least some level of understanding what each level of risk assessment means and the ability to compare them.Moreover its easier for some decision makers rather than dealing with risk or no risk option to have some sort of method or tools that help them to compare whcih is what and what is which becuase we know that it's alwyas a Question that "HOW BAD IT IS" neet to be  deciphered

John.Kimmel   8 posts since
Nov 5, 2009
6. Nov 5, 2009 7:23 PM in response to: Ralph DeFrangesco
Re: Quantifying Risk

I agree with Dawit. Quantifying risk does expand on the two options of "risky or not risky", and place risk on a linear scale. With this linear scale a more suitable finite value can be applied, and the best decision can be made. I enjoyed the mathematical example and found it especially intriguing. Risk is definitely proportional to the event type. Even in a scale of high, medium, and low risk is still quantified and can be assigned a numeric value.  Though it is quantifiable, risk can only be mitigated to an acceptable level and not neutralized entirely.



John.Kimmel   8 posts since
Nov 5, 2009
7. Nov 5, 2009 7:00 PM in response to: Ralph DeFrangesco
Re: Quantifying Risk

The ability to quantify risk is essential for numerous reasons. Business decisions are based on risks. Some risks reap huge rewards, while some risks are too great for the reward they offer. We need the ability to quantify this risk into a format that is easily understood and relevant through all parts of a risk analysis.

Without the ability to quantify risk you cannot accurately gauge it. Quantifying risk allows you to assign risk a physical value that provides us the ability to make educated decisions related to business. Although the values we assign risk may differ slightly because it is subject to interpretation, not quantifying risk would be irresponsible and lead to poor business decisions.

Without the quantification of risk, decisions would not be based on numbers and facts, but on each person’s interpretation of the partially completed risk analysis. Senior level management needs this information and relies on the people under them to provide it in the condensed format of a number. Each number can represent hundreds of pages of data; each risk is calculated and assigned a numeric value. Senior Level management may not have time to read an entire report, but may only care to read the summary of a risk’s value. This process is essential for making educated decisions and having a company that functions efficiently.

Royce"The-Go-to-Guy"Richards   9 posts since
Nov 5, 2009
8. Nov 5, 2009 7:24 PM in response to: Ralph DeFrangesco
Re: Quantifying Risk

It is important to quantify risk in order to understand the full scope and impact that a particular risk or set of risks may have on an organization's bottom line.  Ultimately, it comes down to money.  Whether a company chooses to conduct a qualitative or quantitative risk assessment, some of the results must be presented in the form of a cost-benefit analysis.

 

It is important to know what the risks as well as how heavily those risks may impact the operating budget.  Certain questions will be raised.  One would imagine that two of the most obvious questions might be:

 

1. How much could the risk cost the company if it is realized?

 

2. How much will it cost to put the necessary controls in place to mitigate that risk?

 

Quantified data is necessary in order for move forward with the mitigation process.  Depending on the potential cost, risk avoidance may be the answer.

Royce"The-Go-to-Guy"Richards   9 posts since
Nov 5, 2009
9. Nov 5, 2009 7:50 PM in response to: John.Kimmel
Re: Quantifying Risk

Well said Mr. Kimmel

I would have to agree that it is unlikely that that many of the individuals privy to the report will read it in its entirety.  I don’t believe this would occur because they are lazy. It just seems reasonable that most people are interested in the more tangible data.  Once they find out what the risks are, they probably want to see the monetary or operational impact those risks may have.  After that, they’ll probably be interested to see the method and cost of mitigation.  Numbers provide greater meaning. It’s just that simple. 

That’s not to say that the remainder of the analysis/assessment is fluff or irrelevant, but it’s safe to say that most people are interested in the end result. 

Inquiring minds want to know…  Are we at risk?... If so, how much?... Can we afford to mitigate it and still make a profit?

Millie   8 posts since
Nov 3, 2009
10. Nov 5, 2009 7:55 PM in response to: Ralph DeFrangesco
Re: Quantifying Risk

Quantifying Risk is a value which should be practiced in all businesses or at any given time in our lives. It is important to be able to evaluate and determine the effects which are the results of the decisions we  make.  Everyone is placed in a leadership position and quantifying risk plays a part in making informed decisions.  Decisions is a key factor in the success or failure of any outcome.  The thoughts we process broadens opportunities at home, work or environements we associate ourselves.



WarrickStJean   28 posts since
May 11, 2009
11. Nov 5, 2009 8:10 PM in response to: JeffGoldman
Re: Quantifying Risk

I am in agreement with Jeff that the process of risk quantification is the business equivalent of alchemy! The actuarial science by which complex mathematical algorithms consisting of statistics, probability and almanac mysticism come together, LOL.

As subjective as it may be the very process of quantifying risk helps to reduce risk by making decision makers aware of potential pit falls. The risk quantification metrics is akin to an infinite game of russian roulette which by itself can be exhausting and can serve to paralyze the initial benefits of risk quantification due to paralysis of analysis.

Quantifying risk is not an end in itself, but a worthy excercise which is a means to a better end!

Millie   8 posts since
Nov 3, 2009
12. Nov 5, 2009 8:15 PM in response to: JeffGoldman
Re: Quantifying Risk

I like the thought of preparing for different circumstances to the best of our ability.  We can never plan enough and we definitely don't always know what to expect all the time.  In a work place nothing is constant because people, places and things change.  It's a challenge to keep up with technology.  For example we are weighing the odds on Windows Vista and then a few months later we are looking at the odds for Window 7.

joejuliano   6 posts since
Nov 5, 2009
13. Nov 5, 2009 9:24 PM in response to: Ralph DeFrangesco
Re: Quantifying Risk

Coming from a non-profit organization, I see quantifying risk as not only important but a necessity. Establishing a qualitative risk assessment will help establish a list of risks or threats, then assign a priority as to which are low to high levels of impact with their respective probabilities of occurrence. Once this is done, focus can be aimed at the risks of interest. In a business money needs to be spent wisely and in the right places. A quantitative assessment will give a more granular, detailed picture, not just a "these are important, and we don't need to worry about those".  A quantitative assessment can show the number of times a threat has occurred, damage suffered, money needed to mitigate and safeguard against them, and which actions are feasable. Having such detailed information will please management, making them feel warm inside knowing their money was well spent and made the right decisions to protect their business and investment.

joejuliano   6 posts since
Nov 5, 2009
14. Nov 5, 2009 9:59 PM in response to: Royce"The-Go-to-Guy"Richards
Re: Quantifying Risk

I have to agree. Qualitative or quantitative, knowing what the risks can cost a company and the price to put the neccessary controls to mitigate the risk should definitely be obvious questions one would have to ask to determine what effect it would have on the company. If the actions taken to control a risk are going to do more damage to a budget than the impact of not controlling it would have, it might be better to shift focus. On the other hand, controlling these risks could be beneficial over a period of time.

Quantifying Risk

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