Carl Weinschenk spoke with In-Stat Chief Technology Strategist Jim McGregor.

Weinschenk: What did you look at in your recent report on GPS?
McGregor: The key part of the report is to look at the opportunities for, and challenges to, the existence of GPS in mobile devices from consumer electronics to cell phones to mobile PCs and in between. It is natural to say it is just another component to add it in, but it is not that easy. It is a very difficult challenge, especially when you have multiple radios or multiple antennas in the device. It causes a lot of problems. There is a lot of innovation from companies such as Broadcom, Cambridge, Qualcomm, STMicroelectronics, TI, Infineon, MediaTek and others that are working to really develop chipsets that combine multiple wireless technologies.

Weinschenk: What’s the challenge?
McGregor: The first thing to think of is that each wireless solution typically might need a separate antenna. Think of a handset: It has cellular communications. That’s one radio. It has Bluetooth. That’s another radio. GPS is another radio. All of a sudden, you say, “How do you fit three antenna and three chips into the phone?” You have to, first of all, make sure the different wireless technologies don’t interfere with each other, and secondly, make sure everything fits into a very small space and uses very little power. I would say, generally, when you get down to the silicon level for different solutions, you want as few antennas as possible -- one if possible. You want to do the integration of the technologies at the silicon level. There are different ways of doing that, but basically everyone pretty much realizes that that integration is the key.

Weinschenk: What will the evolution of GPS look like?
McGregor: GPS already exists in certain products, especially in higher-end cell phones like smartphones and GPS personal navigation devices. These are used mostly for navigation and emergency services so that you can locate the user. Another reason GPS is so important is infotainment, which is emerging. Everyone is looking at location-based services that can drastically change a lot of the ways in which we use these devices. The potential to aim a sensor at something and get information about where you are and where you want to go [has created] a lot of interest. It also takes the need for GPS functionality to a new level. All those areas are growing, especially security. There is great potential for GPS going forward. The higher the level of mobility is, the higher the adoption rate of GPS will be.

Weinschenk: Just how quickly will this ramp up?
McGregor: Nineteen percent of handsets had GPS in 2008. According to our forecast, 45 percent will have GPS in 2013. The more mobile the device is, the higher the level of adoption will be. Laptops will go from 3 percent to 8 or 9 percent. That is still a significant jump… Only 4 percent of digital still cameras had GPS in 2008. We are expecting 18 percent in 2013. It is not limited to handsets or personal handheld games. It can include video recorders and related devices. It could roll out just like the adoption of Wi-Fi and USB. It can be one of the next-generation check-off items that are eventually integrated into devices. But unlike things that mostly are interfaces, this is technology that changes the way you use the device.

Weinschenk: What do you mean?
McGregor: GPS [makes possible services that] consumers may pay for and that may have a service revenue component attached. There is a way to attach value to the consumer and to attach value for the service provider and app provider. You can attach it to things like LBS and security. It changes the way people buy devices, and the way they use the devices. And you may be able to get people to pay for it.

Weinschenk: What is the dynamic in the vendor sector?
McGregor: The fun part is that there is so much IP [intellectual property] going into these devices in terms of wireless interfaces and other technology. There is no one way to do it. At this point, it still is a young and immature market. Everyone is experimenting with different approaches and technologies. We are seeing a migration toward mass RF IO [radio frequency input/output] chips really starting to develop.

Weinschenk: Is the goal to put all the functionality in one device?
McGregor: To put it all in one device is very complicated and [the resulting device] may not do everything well, especially in mobile devices where battery life is so critical. All our research says that consumers typically don’t want one device. They want devices geared toward their particular usage aim. I think what you are going to see is devices aimed toward specific market segments or usage models. We think of handsets as a billion-unit pot of gold. They actually are a bunch of little pots. No one device can target them all.

Weinschenk: So the market could fragment, to an extent.
McGregor: You perhaps cannot integrate everything, but you want what is the biggest attraction to the biggest market. You need to balance that with the device footprint, power requirements and with development cost. All these factors are tradeoffs. By just doing one chip instead of five, the cost alone can change folks’ viewpoint. Masks cost in the multimillions each and development in the multimillions. Those costs alone could be prohibitive in making multiple chips.

Weinschenk: It sounds like you think that we are about to enter a period of great growth.
McGregor: The integration of GPS and other wireless technologies is starting to mature. And the potential especially with additional applications in infotainment and, especially, security is huge. [The number of devices enabled with GPS] is going to almost double by 2011 and potentially double again by 2014. We really are just on the uptake part of this curve. You would think with all the personal navigation devices out there that it’s mature. But it’s not.