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Our 2007 Consensus Opinion, pointed to slower growth in IT spending over 2006 levels. This year, we find that predictions for slow growth are still prevailing. In fact, where analysts predicted global spending growth in the range of 4-6 percent in 2007, this year, the spending growth predictions range has widened to 1-6 percent as the global IT market faces an uncertain first half of 2008 due to the apparent slowdown in the US economy. IT spending is directly correlated with economic health, and the first signs of a slowdown have caused IT decision makers to tighten budgets in almost all regions of the world. The US will be affected the most, as leading analyst firms have revised their US IT spending forecasts downward several times since the beginning of the new year.

Though IT spending will likely be affected in most regions of the world, the Asia-Pacific region will be the only exception to this trend. Most analysts agree that IT spending will remain robust in this region in 2008. Some analysts even predict that the rapid growth in the IT market in Asia-Pacific will take this market closer to the US market in terms of size. Analysts have their hopes pinned on India and China, and concur that India will see the fastest growth in IT spending this year.

Like the Asia-Pacific region, the US slowdown seems to have little effect on global SMB IT spending predictions. SMBs in Asia-Pacific have been predicted to increase IT spending by as much as 28 percent in 2008. Analysts believe that SMBs realize the importance of cost-savings in difficult economic conditions and are, therefore, ready to reap as much efficiency gain as possible through judicious investment in IT infrastructure.

Comparing IT spending priorities across different surveys, analysts see a continuation of last year’s trends, with Business Intelligence solutions remaining a favorite with IT decision makers. The same holds true with enterprise applications, security solutions, and collaboration technologies. New entrants in the list of priorities this year include server virtualization, green IT, and ITIL.

Considering all available analyst predictions it appears that, the first half of 2008 will be difficult for IT vendors, especially hardware vendors. Vendors will likely make a beeline for the developing regions (the BRIC countries and other emerging regions), which, it is predicted, will escape relatively unscathed by the US slowdown. Experts agree that the US slowdown will likely last for the first two quarters of 2008 and that IT spending will bounce back to healthier levels in the second half of the year.

Yet another new year brings on yet another round of IT spending predictions. Although most IT experts and analysts have presented their IT spending predictions for 2008, these predictions have been subjected to (and are still undergoing) revisions on account of the impending slowdown in the US. Upon close examination of the various forecasts from IT and financial analyst firms worldwide, we find analysts broadly agreeing on IT spending predictions for 2008 – economic uncertainties, which include a likely recession in the US economy, cloud the environment, pulling down spending forecasts below 2007 levels. However, continuing with the respective predicted trends for 2007, we find 2008 IT spending predictions for small- and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) once again taking lead over that of their larger counterparts, and the Asia-Pacific region once again promising robust growth, despite negative outlook in the US.

Virtualization, unified communications, and the drive to go ‘green’ feature among the top investment priorities for 2008. Moreover, the drive to innovate and revamp existing technologies is also predicted drive IT spending this year. Despite a slowdown in the US economy, analysts forecast robust IT spending in the emerging markets of Asia-Pacific, East Europe, and Middle-East and Africa, with India and China taking the lead.

Our partners at Analyst Perspectives present an overview of analyst predictions and opinions about IT spending in 2008.

Some key findings include, with the slowing of the US economy, IT spending levels are forecast to decelerate in 2008 compared to 2007 levels; virtualization, unified communications, and network security rank among the top technology priorities for CIOs in 2008; and from a geographical standpoint, IT spending will remain strong in the emerging markets of Asia-Pacific, the Middle-East, and Africa.