It will be interesting to look back, about a year from now, and see which of the many pessimistic forecasts for lower tech spending in 2009 were correct.
Just yesterday I wrote about several recent predictions, from Gartner, Forrester Research, the Society for Information Managment, Computer Economics, UBS and Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. All are scaling back their earlier projections for tech spending as the economy continues to decline. Yet they can't seem to agree on just how bad it will get, with estimates ranging from a spending decline of up to 15 percent to spending growth of 6 percent.
Now we have yet another one, from IDC. Like many other analysts, it says tech spending will grow next year, but not much. IDC predicts spending growth of 0.9 percent in the United States, down from its earlier forecast of 4.2 percent, reports CIOZone.
The global picture is a bit brighter, with IDC calling for 2009 spending growth of 2.6 percent, down from its earlier estimate of 5.9 percent. The strongest growth will take place in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, says IDC. Spending on software and services will grow in 2009, while hardware spending declines, it says.
Like others, IDC believes companies will be unable to make deep cuts in spending because technology is "deeply embedded" in so many mission-critical functions. Stephen Minton, IDC's vice president of worldwide IT markets and strategies, says companies don't have "the asset and spending overhang" that allowed them to forego tech purchases after Y2K and the dot-com bust. Says Minton:
As a result, there will be greater pressure for them to continue making IT investments in order to stay competitive.